Online Bookie Review

Capping MLB

Our first article in this series covered the three most common bets that a punter can make: the spread, the money line, and totals (over/under). With our newly acquired understanding of these general betting principles we are now on the road to becoming proficient sports handicappers, and will move forward with a more specific, in depth study; focusing on baseball as a launching point.

One of the first and most vital concepts for a new handicapper to grasp is that when betting on sports, and especially with baseball, it is important to remember that the primary goal is to book long-term profits, and thus to not be overly concerned with the outcome of any one contest. Over the course of an MLB season, every sports bettor is going to have winning streaks and losing streaks — periods where things seemingly can’t go wrong and dry spells where you can’t catch a break. It’s all part of the territory. However, knowing this up front, we can set goals based on the long term return, and hopefully not be discouraged by short term losses. As the old adage goes, “It’s a marathon, not a sprint.”

To start the MLB season out on the right foot, the winning handicapper will capitalize early on one of the most rudimentary yet fundamental steps in successfully capping MLB: turnaround teams. The first assignment for the season is to sit back and take a good long look at last year’s teams, assess which teams appear to have improved over their previous season and which teams appear worse-off. Making this simple analysis can lead to finding great value in early season wagers and can ultimately translate into significant winnings right out of the gates; potentially padding the all important bank roll in preparation for the long and grueling MLB betting season. This winner’s perspective is best gained by analyzing statistics. How to do so, and how to make those statistics book a profit, is the focus of this article.

Major League Baseball produces a growing number of superfluous statistics every single year. The relevancy of all statistics should be evaluated by asking yourself three simple, yet important questions:

1. Is the topic covered by the statistic something vital enough to win a baseball game?
2. Does the statistic accurately measure actual ability that is significant enough to dictate the outcome of a game?
3. Is the statistic easy to understand?

If the information that you are analyzing doesn’t meet the aforementioned criteria, throw it out. There is no need for you to spend your time trying to determine how the Relief Efficiency Rate of the Padres is going to affect the scoring ability of the Giants, coupled against the Stolen Base Average of the Padres. Many stats are nothing more than fodder for the loquacious fans, announcers, and historians and are of little use in determining the outcome of a specific game. Don’t stress about not knowing how to implement these stats into your sports betting system; seriously, just forget about them.

There is an old adage that baseball is 90% pitching. The most important component which must be analyzed thoroughly to give the best possibility of predicting the outcome of a baseball game is the pitcher match-ups.

While compiling analytical comparisons of two pitchers, it is also important to not necessarily take statistics at face value. There are two sides to every story, and baseball statistics are no exception. Say, for example, the Yankees were to play the Mets and Derek Jeter bat .500 for the night. On a superficial level, just viewing the statistic at face value, it looks like Jeter’s got a hot bat and you might want to lay it on the Yanks for tomorrow’s game. But if we look at the reality of that night, we may see that Jeter went 1-2 with two walks. In his two at bats, he struck out when the bases were loaded and then on his next at bat he singled with 2 outs and no one on. That’s still a .500 average, but it did not help his team, and more importantly, he actually crumbled when it came time to perform. Determining a player’s ability to perform under pressure and in tight spots, especially pitchers, is a key point of importance when analyzing statistics.

For the purpose of this article, we are going to focus on two pretty basic stats: E.R.A. and WHIP, but we are going to learn to skeptically analyze them for real value.

The first and most obvious statistic to look at is a pitcher’s E.R.A., and doing so is generally thought to be the most valuable tool to determine a pitcher’s success. The E.R.A. tells you how many earned runs a pitcher has given up per nine innings pitched. So if a pitcher gives up one run and pitches nine innings his E.R.A. would be 1.00. If he pitches six innings and gives up two runs his E.R.A would be 3.00. Unearned runs do not affect a pitcher’s E.R.A. and once the official scorer deems that three outs should have been made, the pitcher’s E.R.A. cannot go up any more for the inning. But that is one of the holes in the statistic. Say, for example, pitcher A strikes out the side, while pitcher B gives up three hits and is the beneficiary of a lucky double play. Both pitchers’ E.R.A. for that inning is 0.00 but they achieved that in completely different ways. One pitcher dominated the other team while the other was on the receiving end of some good fortune. This results in the need for another statistic to be used in conjunction with the E.R.A., the WHIP.

WHIP stands for walks and hits per innings pitched. It is used to determine the effectiveness the pitcher has against each individual hitter. After each hitter faced, the pitcher’s WHIP will either go up or down. Taking the same preceding situation, pitcher A would have a WHIP of 0.00 and pitcher B who gave up three hits and no runs will have a WHIP of 3.00. Yet both pitchers’ E.R.A. for the inning is 0.00. Another thing that the WHIP tells you that the E.R.A does not is what happens to a pitcher after an error was made. If there are two outs in an inning and an error is made and the official scorer determines that it should have been an out, the E.R.A. is frozen and can only go down once the final out is made. In theory, the next five batters could all step up and hit home runs and the E.R.A. would remain the same. However, the WHIP will not. If the next five men reach base after the error, the WHIP for that inning will be 5.00 and the E.R.A. will stay at 0.00. Yes, the pitcher should have been out of the inning unharmed but giving up that many more hits demonstrates ineffectiveness and inability to bounce back under pressure.

These two statistics go hand in hand with each other. They are both very useful and when considered together can provide great insight into a pitcher’s overall performance ability. They also both satisfy our conditions for determining whether or not a statistic is important: they cover a topic that is vital enough to win a baseball game, accurately measure actual ability that is significant enough to dictate the outcome of a game, and are fairly easy to understand. Any and all data used in our handicapping endeavors must be looked at with this same discerning eye.

Analyzing statistics effectively is what provides a handicapper with his ability to determine recurring trends, which, if implemented properly can equate to healthy profits.

Point Spreads, Money Lines, and Totals

When it comes to sports handicapping, the name of the game is to find an “edge”.

Sportsbooks and bookies naturally have the odds in their favor, by virtue of the spread or vig charged on a betting line. For example, Oakland might be favored to win against Minnesota at -115, meaning you have to bet $1.15 to win $1.00 (if Oakland wins). If the odds for Minnesota to win are +105, then that means that Minnesota bettors need to bet $1.00 to win $1.05. The 10 cent differential between $1.15 and $1.05 is the vig, or the “house edge” and is the built in advantage that belongs to your bookie. (This example uses money line odds, which will be explained in more detail later in this article).

Whether based on current trends, generous or otherwise skewed betting lines, or simply a gut instinct; finding your own “edge”, or more appropriately, the way to overcome the “house edge” is the key to being a successful sports handicapper.

Before delving too deeply into the science of sports handicapping, it is important to have an understanding of the jargon that makes the sports betting world seem so ambiguous and intimidating to beginning bettors, and it is these basics that this article is meant to cover. Advanced topics and discussion of ways to turn the odds in your favor will be discussed in later articles in this series.

There are three fundamental concepts that must be grasped in order for your sports bets to meet with anything more than very random success: the point spread, the money line, and totals (over/under). Because these are the three most basic bets that can be placed on any sporting event, they must be mastered if one is to gain sports betting proficiency.

The Point Spread

In the early 1940’s, bookmakers were struggling to keep an even book, (equal action on both sides of a sporting event) mostly in football and basketball because there were clear underdogs and mismatches which tipped the action to the favored team. In order to compensate for the probability that the underdog would lose the game, bookies began placing a handicap on the expected winner.

In order to understand how point spreads work, we will use an example:

Let’s say that the Steelers are playing the Rams, and the Steelers are expected to win by a large margin. In that case, the point spread might be as high as 14 points. After the conclusion of the game, 14 points is subtracted from the Steelers’ score (or added to the Rams’ score) for purposes of the wager made. Thus, in order for a wager on the Steelers to pay out, they would have to win by a minimum of 15 points. On the other hand, a wager on the Rams would pay out not only if the Rams won, but also as long as they lost by no more than 13 points.

The Money Line

Unlike the point spread, which places a point handicap on the favored team or player, money line bets are only made over who will win the match. The money line is used primarily for sporting events in which the point spread is irrelevant; such as boxing, tennis, and racing, or sports in which the margin of victory is so nominal as to make it impractical to create a point spread for every game; such as baseball, hockey and soccer.

In order to understand how money lines work, we will use an example: Let’s say that the Yankees are playing against the Mets. Money line odds posted for the game will appear similar to the following:

NY Yankees +120
NY Mets -130

In this example, the Mets are the favored team, as signified by the – (minus) written in front of the 130, while the Yankees are the underdogs, as designated by the + (plus) in front of the 120. What these numbers mean is that those wishing to bet on the favorite, the Mets, will have to risk $1.30 to win $1.00, while those wanting to wager on the underdog, the Yankees, will risk $1.00 to win $1.20.

Totals (Over/Under)

Totals bets are perhaps the simplest form of sports betting and one that serious bettors and bookmakers alike focus a tremendous amount of attention on.

Bookmakers will post a totals number that represents their estimate of the total points that will be scored in the game (determined by adding the final score of both teams together). The bettor can wager whether the final tally will be over or under the number that the bookie provides.

In order to understand how totals bets work, we will use an example: Let’s say that the New York Giants are playing against the Tennessee Titans and the posted total is 40. If you bet over on the game, you win your bet if the two teams combine for more than 40 points. So if the Titans win 24-17, for example, you win your wager. However, if the Titans were to win 24-14, you would lose the over bet, as the final combined score would be 38 points. If the final score added up to exactly 40, the bet would be considered a push (or a tie), and your wagered funds would be returned to you.

The three types of bets discussed in this article are the cornerstone upon which sports handicapping abilities are built, and will be used as a springboard for the more advanced topics that we will explore in additional articles in this series.